
DragonBay Holdings, over-trader, dead at Q2 ’32.
DragonBay traded more than its balance sheet could carry, and in a market that stopped forgiving, the funding gap it had outrun for years finally closed on it.

Run a company for 25 years, take on 12 rivals, and cash out at the top.
A quarter takes a few minutes. A full run is up to 100 of them.
Here is the board at quarter one: every product every rival sells, placed by selling price and where it sits from cheap to luxury, each mark sized by units sold. Tap a product, or a name in the list below, to open its books and the full range it sells.
Sells out of what people want and hoards what they do not.
The private equity funds do this for a living, and they answer to one number. Clear the same bar and you have out-invested them.
A premium house that grew by purchase. When a rival stumbled it bought the whole company rather than out-price it, folded the range in, and bolted on a cheaper line to hold the low end.
Six years in, it listed at the top of the cycle and the founder sold into the strength. The funds charge to run this exact play.
Every decision books itself properly: through the P&L, onto the balance sheet, out of the cash flow, and the balance check ties to zero every quarter of every game.
Notifications land as you play, to help you run the business and read the room: a rival folds, your bank sends word, a buyer starts circling. None of it is scripted to you; all of it is triggered by what you and the market do.

DragonBay traded more than its balance sheet could carry, and in a market that stopped forgiving, the funding gap it had outrun for years finally closed on it.
Norman Pelham ·Pelham & County BankLetter three of six · Gentle observationDear Sir or Madam, I hope you will forgive a gentle observation. Three consecutive quarters above the leverage limit form a pattern rather than an accident. Nothing changes today. I simply think it kinder to say so now than later.
Yours sincerely, Norman Pelham.
Sabine Voss · Private equitySeen in a rival’s building“I only ever arrive when I am needed. That is what makes the terms what they are.”
One reads the upside, one the risk, one the cash. They never agree, and they are bound to your real numbers.
“Cover is thinning against the covenant. I would not.”



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DCF, trading multiples and the valuation bridge, the way a desk builds them

Buy your rivals: private and public deals, bolt-ons, and the sell-side auction

Priced equity rounds, the IPO book-build and the listing itself

The private-equity endgame: the leveraged buyout, sponsor economics and the exit
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